🧭 2026 MARKET AT A GLANCE — THE BIG PICTURE

Calgary’s housing market in 2026 is moving through a normalization cycle after several years of unusually tight conditions. The extreme seller-driven environment seen from 2021–2024 has softened as supply improved across resale, rental, and new home markets. At the same time, demand has cooled back toward long-term norms due to slower migration and employment growth.

This combination places the market in balanced to buyer-leaning territory, depending on property type. Importantly, CREB® does not forecast a crash or a sharp downturn. Instead, 2026 is a year where pricing, timing, and property selection matter far more than urgency or speculation.

Key stats & themes:

• 🏘️ Total residential sales forecast: ~22,200

• 📊 Overall benchmark price change: -0.9%

• ⚖️ Conditions vary widely by property type

• 🧠 Strategy > speed in 2026

📉 Sales & Price Outlook

Residential sales in 2026 are expected to remain in line with historical averages, supported by population gains from prior years but capped by slower job growth and reduced migration. The market no longer has the demand momentum required to push prices higher across the board. Instead, sales volumes stabilize while buyers become more selective.

Price movement in 2026 is not uniform across the city. Higher-density housing continues to absorb most of the adjustment, while low-density homes act as a stabilizing force. This segmented behaviour explains why overall price changes appear modest despite noticeable softness in certain categories.

2026 benchmark price forecasts by type:

• 🏢 Apartments: -3.5% (~$310,000)

• 🏘️ Row homes: -1.9% (~$433,000)

• 🏠 Semi-detached: +0.8% (~$691,200)

• 🏡 Detached: +0.1% (~$754,000)

⚠️ Forecast Risks (Upside & Downside)

There are several downside risks that could weigh on the market throughout 2026. Ongoing U.S. trade uncertainty, the potential renegotiation of CUSMA, weaker global growth, and lower oil prices could restrain investment and consumer confidence. If these risks intensify, they would reinforce cautious buyer behaviour and slower housing absorption.

On the upside, regulatory shifts supporting the energy sector could attract investment and improve economic sentiment. However, CREB® emphasizes that even if positive changes occur, the housing market is unlikely to feel meaningful benefits until after 2026, keeping this year relatively contained.

Risk indicators:

• 🛢️ WTI oil forecast: ~$65/barrel (down from ~$77 in 2025)

• 🇺🇸 Trade and tariff uncertainty persists

• ⏳ Any upside impact delayed beyond 2026

🧠 Economic Environment

Alberta is expected to remain one of Canada’s stronger provincial economies in 2026, supported by diversification into petrochemicals, hydrogen, technology, manufacturing, and logistics. This diversification has helped cushion the province against broader global uncertainty and energy price volatility.

That said, economic strength does not automatically translate into housing acceleration. With interest rates expected to hold steady and cost-of-living pressures still present, households are prioritizing stability over expansion. The result is an economy that supports housing stability, but not rapid price growth.

Economic stats:

• 📈 Alberta GDP growth forecast: ~2.1%

• 🏦 Bank of Canada overnight rate: ~2.25%

• 💸 Affordability pressures still present

👷 Employment & Housing Demand

Employment growth in Calgary exceeded expectations in 2025, but this momentum is not expected to continue into 2026. Job growth is forecast to slow sharply, with losses in some sectors offsetting gains elsewhere. At the same time, the labour force has expanded due to previous population growth, keeping unemployment elevated.

This matters because housing demand is closely tied to employment confidence. While prior job gains will support baseline demand, the lack of new job creation prevents any increase in sales activity. This dynamic is a major reason price growth remains muted.

Labour market stats:

• 📉 Employment growth (2026): ~0.4%

• 📊 Unemployment rate: ~7.4%

• 🏠 Demand: stable, not expanding

🧳 Population & Migration Trends

Migration was one of the strongest drivers of housing demand between 2022 and 2024, but that trend has reversed. In 2025, both international and interprovincial migration declined more sharply than expected, and further easing is forecast for 2026.

Lower migration does not imply population loss, but it does bring growth back toward historical norms. When paired with rising housing supply, this shift reduces upward pressure on prices and lengthens absorption timelines across most segments.

Migration stats:

• 📉 Calgary population growth: ~1.3%

• 🌍 International migration: significantly reduced

• 🚶 Interprovincial inflows: slowing

🏗️ New Home Supply

New home construction surged in 2025 as builders responded to prior supply shortages, resulting in record-high units under construction entering 2026. Although housing starts are expected to drop sharply this year, the existing pipeline means supply will continue to rise as projects are completed.

A large share of this supply is concentrated in apartment-style units and rentals. This imbalance extends the adjustment period for both resale and rental markets and limits pricing power for sellers in high-density segments.

Supply stats:

• 🏗️ Housing starts (2026 forecast): ~18,400 (-34%)

• 🚧 Units under construction: ~26,000

• 🏢 Apartment share: ~63%

• 🏠 Rental share: ~45%

🏠 Rental Market Conditions

The rental market is undergoing a significant shift as new supply comes online at the same time migration slows. Purpose-built rental construction has reached record levels, pushing vacancy rates higher across all districts. This environment is placing downward pressure on rent growth.

Higher vacancies reduce urgency for renters to transition into ownership and weaken investor demand for apartment-style condos. As a result, rental market softness directly feeds into resale pricing pressure in 2026.

Rental stats:

• 🏢 Purpose-built rentals under construction: ~11,800

• 📈 Vacancy rates: rising city-wide

• 💸 Rent growth: flat to declining

🏢 Apartment Market

Apartments face the greatest adjustment in 2026. Elevated inventory, weaker investor demand, and increased rental competition continue to weigh on resale prices. Inventory levels remain at record highs, particularly in the City Centre, where nearly half of all apartment supply is located.

This segment offers the most buyer leverage but also requires careful analysis, as not all locations or buildings will perform equally.

Apartment stats:

• 📉 2026 price forecast: -3.5%

• 💲 Benchmark price: ~$310,000

• 📍 City Centre share of supply: ~43%

🏘️ Row Housing

Row homes experienced a surge in inventory in 2025, particularly in districts with heavy new construction. While prices softened last year, further declines are expected in 2026, though at a slower pace as the market gradually absorbs excess supply.

Competition from new-build row homes continues to influence resale pricing, especially for older units.

Row housing stats:

• 📉 2026 price forecast: -1.9%

• 💲 Benchmark price: ~$433,000

• 📦 Inventory: elevated vs historical norms

🏠 Semi-Detached Homes

Semi-detached homes remain relatively insulated from volatility due to limited supply and lower construction volumes. Prices rose modestly in 2025 and are forecast to stabilize in 2026, though conditions vary significantly by location and price point.

Higher-end semis face more competition, while well-located, mid-range properties continue to perform steadily.

Semi-detached stats:

• 📈 2026 price forecast: +0.8%

• 💲 Benchmark price: ~$691,200

• ⚖️ Market conditions: balanced

🏡 Detached Homes

Detached homes continue to anchor the Calgary market. Improved supply has shifted conditions toward balance without creating oversupply. Sales levels are expected to remain similar to 2025, with pricing largely flat and varying by district.

This stability helps prevent broader market volatility.

Detached stats:

• 📈 2026 price forecast: +0.1%

• 💲 Benchmark price: ~$754,000

• 🏠 Supply: balanced

🧠 BOTTOM LINE — WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

🛒 Buyers

2026 is a market that rewards patience and preparation. Inventory levels are higher, giving buyers more options and leverage, especially in apartments and row homes. Pricing is more transparent, and negotiation is once again a meaningful part of the process. Buyers who focus on fundamentals rather than fear or urgency are best positioned to succeed.

🏷️ Sellers

Sellers must approach 2026 with realistic expectations. The market no longer supports aspirational pricing, and homes that are mispriced will sit. Detached and semi-detached sellers are in the strongest position, but success depends on accurate pricing, strong presentation, and understanding local conditions. Strategy matters more than timing.

💼 Investors

2026 is a precision year, not a momentum year. Rising vacancies, softer rents, and elevated apartment supply mean deals must be underwritten carefully. Cash flow, entry price, and long-term viability are critical. For disciplined investors, opportunities exist — but only with patience and selectivity.

NEXT STEPS ➡️

If you have any questions about how this forecast applies to your specific situation — whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the market — feel free to reach out. I’m always happy to walk through the numbers and help you understand what this means for you.

As we move through 2026, market conditions will continue to vary by property type and timing, so having the right strategy matters. If you’d like to talk through your plans or want a more tailored outlook, I’m here.